Architecting for Uncertainty: The Power of Scenarios

Written By Kaine Ugwu

Scenario planning has its roots in military strategy and gained prominence in the corporate world through pioneers like Herman Kahn, a researcher at the RAND Corporation, in the 1950s. Kahn developed techniques to describe future possibilities through stories, which he called "scenarios," while working on military strategy for the U.S. government.

In the late 1960s, Shell adopted scenario planning to explore alternative futures, challenging decision-makers to think beyond traditional forecasts. This method evolved from Jimmy Davidson's "Long Range Studies", initiated in 1965, and was significantly advanced when Pierre Wack joined Shell's Group Planning department in 1971. Scenario planning explored multiple plausible futures, challenging decision-makers to consider alternative realities rather than predict a single outcome.¹

When the 1973 oil crisis erupted, Shell was better prepared than many competitors. The company's scenarios had anticipated potential disruptions in the oil market, including supply shortages and price increases. While competitors struggled with supply disruptions and market volatility, This foresight helped Shell navigate the crisis more effectively. For instance, Shell's "upgrading policy," developed by Jan Choufoer, the coordinator of Shell's refinery activities, involved distinguishing between three types of oil products (light, medium, and heavy fuels), developing additional cracking capacity, reducing sales of heavy fuels, and rapidly converting heavy products into light products during a crisis. This move proved highly profitable when the crisis hit.²

Building on earlier efforts within Shell, Wack's work demonstrated that embracing uncertainty through scenario planning could enhance a company's resilience and agility, potentially turning crises into strategic advantages. Shell's approach to scenario planning has since influenced many organisations and even governments,³ embedding these principles into broader business practices for navigating uncertain futures.

In an era of rapid technological change and uncertainty, organisations face mounting pressure to navigate complexity while staying resilient. Integrating scenario planning with enterprise architecture offers a forward-looking approach that helps organisations anticipate disruption, adapt to change, and align enterprise systems with strategic objectives.

Scenarios and Architecting

Enterprise architecture (EA) provides a structured framework to align business and technology, ensuring organisations operate efficiently in complex and uncertain environments. EA becomes a dynamic tool for navigating uncertainty when leaders use scenarios.

Scenarios introduce a foresight-driven lens to EA, enabling organisations to:

  1. Visualise Multiple Futures and Alternatives: Scenarios show various possibilities, helping leaders identify emerging trends and assess their implications.

  2. Assess Capability Gaps: Scenarios highlight areas where current systems may fail to support future objectives.

  3. Develop Proactive Strategies: By combining foresight with EA, organisations can design adaptive systems that thrive under diverse conditions.

Practical Approaches

Business Scenarios

The Open Group Architecture Framework (TOGAF) incorporates business scenarios⁴ to align enterprise architecture with high-level requirements. This method ensures that EA artefacts reflect strategic priorities and adapt to potential future shifts.

It is worth noting that while business scenarios in TOGAF and scenario planning are closely connected, TOGAF Business Scenarios are more specific and focused on enterprise architecture needs. In contrast, scenario planning is a broader strategic foresight technique.

TOGAF Business Scenarios and scenario planning share the core principle of using narrative-based approaches to explore possibilities and inform decision-making.

TOGAF Business Scenarios can be seen as a structured and specialised application of scenario thinking within enterprise architecture. They are designed to capture business requirements and align them with architectural solutions. Business scenarios as a technique can also inform the development of architecture alternatives.⁵ 

Architecture alternatives are a powerful problem-solving method in enterprise architecture that aligns closely with scenario planning principles. Thinking of alternatives involves developing and evaluating multiple solutions to meet architectural vision, principles, and requirements.

The method typically involves three key steps: identifying relevant criteria, specifying and understanding options, and selecting or blending alternatives to create the proposed solution.⁶

Architects can present stakeholders with various choices and uncover underlying motives and needs that influence the best-fit architecture at the time. Applying these practices helps ensure EA artefacts reflect strategic priorities and can adapt to potential future shifts.

Risk Scenarios

Risk scenarios⁷ help organisations identify vulnerabilities in their systems. For example, a small business scaling its IT infrastructure without best practices may face availability issues as demand grows. Risk scenarios enable targeted risk assessments and informed decisions to mitigate these challenges.

Scenario-Based Analysis in Software Architecture

At a granular level, Rick Kazman's Scenario-Based Analysis of Software Architecture⁸ uses scenarios to gain information about a system's ability to meet desired quality attributes. This approach strengthens the alignment between software systems and enterprise goals.

Advantages of Scenario Planning

  1. Enhanced Collaboration: Scenario planning encourages cross-departmental dialogue, breaking silos and aligning perspectives.

  2. Alignment: Integrating foresight outputs into EA ensures systems support long-term business objectives, and the organisation can learn from EA work as feedback to foresight.

  3. Resilience and Adaptability: Organisations with foresight practices are equipped with scenario-based insights and can pivot swiftly, minimising disruption during crises.

Challenges with Implementation

  1. Resistance to Change: Shifting from static forecasts to scenarios requires cultural adjustments. It is challenging to shift from linear forecasting for the next fiscal year to scenario planning, which involves considering and planning for multiple futures.

  2. Complexity: Modern IT landscapes involve numerous interconnected systems, making scenario planning and EA integration complex. Continuously updating scenarios to ensure organisations remain relevant in rapidly changing environments is challenging without an iterative foresight practice and resource-intensive even with a practice in place.

  3. Skill Gaps: Organisations need people adept in foresight and EA. Facilitation skills, for instance, are critical for enabling collaborative scenario workshops and aligning diverse perspectives.

Integrating scenario planning with enterprise architecture and other disciplines, such as enterprise risk management, equips organisations with the foresight and agility to thrive in uncertain environments. This thinking helps leaders articulate options and implications and enhances decision-making, enabling organisational resilience.

Organisations embracing scenario planning can anticipate disruption, seize opportunities, and future-proof operations in an increasingly complex and competitive market.

Further Reading

  1. Wilkinson, A., & Kupers, R. (2013). Living in the futures. Harvard Business Review. Retrieved from https://hbr.org/2013/05/living-in-the-futures 

  2. Cabanes, B., Roger, O., & Doganova, L. (2023). Case study: How Shell anticipated the 1973 oil crisis. Polytechnique Insights. Retrieved from https://www.polytechnique-insights.com/en/columns/society/case-study-how-shell-anticipated-the-1973-oil-crisis/ 

  3. El-Agamy, H. (2024). Back to the future: The case for scenario planning. IMD Business School. Retrieved from https://www.imd.org/ibyimd/strategy/back-to-the-future-the-case-for-scenario-planning/ 

  4. The Open Group. (2022). TOGAF® Series Guide: Business Scenarios. Retrieved from https://pubs.opengroup.org/togaf-standard/business-architecture/business-scenarios.html 

  5. The Open Group. (2022). The TOGAF® Standard Fundamental Content: Architecture Alternatives and Trade-Offs. Retrieved from https://pubs.opengroup.org/togaf-standard/adm-techniques/chap10.html

  6. The Open Group. (2022). The TOGAF® Standard Fundamental Content: Phase B: Business Architecture. Retrieved from https://pubs.opengroup.org/togaf-standard/adm/chap04.html 

  7. Ahmed, H. S. A. (2017). COBIT 5 for risk—A powerful tool for risk management. ISACA Industry News. Retrieved from https://www.isaca.org/resources/news-and-trends/industry-news/2017/cobit-5-for-riska-powerful-tool-for-risk-management 

  8. Kazman, R., Abowd, G., Bass, L., & Clements, P. (1996). Scenario-based analysis of software architecture. IEEE Software, 13(1), 47–55. https://doi.org/10.1109/52.542294 

Recommended Book

I recommend Peter Schwartz's age-old classic, “The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World,” as an essential read for those seeking to integrate scenario planning with enterprise architecture. Published in 1991, this work has remained a cornerstone of strategic foresight, offering timeless insights into navigating complex and uncertain business environments. 

Based on his experience at Shell, Schwartz provides a comprehensive framework for developing and utilising scenarios to anticipate future challenges and opportunities. The book's approach aligns closely with the concepts discussed in this article, emphasising the importance of visualising multiple futures, enhancing decision-making processes, and fostering organisational adaptability.

Schwartz's practical scenario development and implementation methods are particularly relevant for leaders looking to create more resilient and future-ready organisational structures. Whether you're new to scenario planning or seeking to refine your approach to long-term strategic thinking, this enduring classic offers valuable guidance on integrating foresight practices with enterprise architecture to enhance organisational agility and resilience in an increasingly unpredictable world.

Get it on Amazon.

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Kaine Ugwu
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