A Brief Overview of Strategic Foresight: Methods and a Generic Framework

Futures thinking and strategic foresight are not new disciplines. Yet their importance has surged in the wake of black swan events like the pandemic.

The ongoing uncertainties caused by conflicts, such as those in Ukraine and the Middle East, underscore the urgency of foresight. Consider the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which traces back to 1948. What patterns emerge from decades of tension, and how might they shape the next 20 years?

In this article, I discuss the concept of strategic foresight.

What is Strategic Foresight?

Foresight is anything we do prior to strategic planning. — Peter Bishop, professional futurist.

Strategic foresight helps organizations see beyond immediate priorities. The OECD defines it as:

“A structured and systematic approach to exploring plausible futures to anticipate and better prepare for change.”

At its core, it’s about using techniques like horizon scanning and scenario planning to uncover opportunities, manage risks, and navigate uncertainty. Foresight isn’t about predicting the future; it’s about creating readiness for what comes next.

Why It Matters

In a world of information overload, staying competitive requires more than data; it demands foresight.

Key benefits of strategic foresight include:

• Smarter Decisions: Leaders make informed choices by anticipating multiple futures.

• Fuel for Innovation: Drives innovation by fostering future-oriented thinking and knowledge creation.

• Stronger Risk Management: Tests the resilience of strategies under different scenarios.

• Antifragile and Resilient Organizations: Builds organizational learning to thrive amidst external changes.

Curious about foresight-driven innovation? Check out the World Economic Forum article by researchers from the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies. In a future edition, I’ll explore how foresight connects with other disciplines.

Applying Strategic Foresight

My interest in foresight grew during the pandemic. It became clear: foresight isn’t optional—it’s essential for navigating the next black swan event.

Foresight operates on three levels:

• Personal: Goal-setting and action planning.

• Organizational: Business improvement and future planning.

• Social: Shaping societal and technological advancement.

To practice strategic foresight effectively, focus on:

1. Developing a forward-thinking mindset.

2. Understanding and applying a foresight process.

3. Selecting tools tailored to your context.
   

Research offers toolkits and frameworks for foresight, like Voros’s (2003) generic process framework linking foresight outputs to strategy. You may already use some of these methods—I’ve curated 12 popular tools in this infographic.

However, foresight is only part of the equation. To thrive in an unpredictable future, we must also aim for resilience—or better yet, antifragility.

Also, check out:

• Popper (2008): 33 Foresight Methods

• UNDP RBAP: Foresight Playbook

• Stanford Foresight: Strategic Foresight and Innovation Playbook

• OPSI: Public Sector Foresight Toolkits

• Foresight University (John Smart): Curated Methods and Frameworks

• Wikipedia: Futures Techniques

Recommended Reading

I’ll occasionally share books I’ve found invaluable. One of my top picks: Jan Oliver Schwarz’s Strategic Foresight: An Introductory Guide to Practice.

As the title suggests, it’s a fantastic starting point. The book offers:

• A clear overview of strategic foresight dimensions.

• Insights into its historical evolution and future applications.

• Practical guidance for implementation.

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